Who will win, Canelo vs Charlo?

Two boxers duelling in the ring
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This year, we have seen a series of legendary fights from Ryan Garcia vs. Gevonte Davis, David Haney vs. Lomo and the shocking battle of Errol Spence vs Terrance Crawford.

This Saturday, 30th September, the most anticipated fight of the year, Saùl ‘Canelo’ Alvarez v Jermell ‘Iron Man’ Charlo, will finally take place in Las Vegas, Nevada. The two undisputed champions will battle it out in the ring to determine who is the world’s middle-weight champion. 

One of the reasons for the excitement around this fight is that this is the first time in boxing history that two undisputed champions in different weight classes collide. Who will take home the belt? In this article, I dive into the likelihood of each champion winning. 

What are the factors? 

Previous Record 

Mexican superstar Canelo is a favorite to win, with a 58-2-2 record, while Charlo is coming in as an underdog in this match but still holds a pretty impressive record of 35-1-1. 

It is certain that Canelo has the upper edge and is – favorite to win for several reasons. Alvarez is the more experienced boxer; Canelo and Charlo are the same age; however, when it comes to boxing age, Canelo is far more experienced, but will that work in Canelo’s favor or Charlo’s? Canelo has fought many greats, from Billy Joe Sauders to even boxing legend and  undefeated champion, Floyd Mayweather, whom he lost to, although many argue that if they fought a little later in Canelo’s career, the Mexican superstar would have won. Nevertheless, the match still improved Alvarez  as a boxer, taking some pointers away from Mayweather’s slick defense style to enhance his own. 

Or, instead, will that work in Charlo’s favor? Due to the physicality of boxing, the body takes on a lot, from cutting blows to the body and face, not to mention the rigorous training regimen to prepare for the fight and strict diets to meet the agreed weight. It would be enough to 

take a toll on even the strongest, most conditioned athlete’s body. Will Canelo’s experience slow him down in the ring? 

Additionally, this is Charlo’s first fight in the 168-pound division, moving up not one but two weight classes. Charlo’s last match was against Brain Castano in May 2022, where he scored a TKO and earned undisputed status. However, this means he has spent sixteen months out of the ring, unlike Canelo, who is fresh out of the ring after winning a unanimous decision against John Ryder earlier this year in May.  

The Odds 

The current average odds as collected by TXODDS are 1.232 Canelo and 3.878 Charlo. 

Besides who will take home the belt as the middle-weight champion of the world, if you are looking to place a wager, there are few other variables to bet on. 

How many rounds will it go?

While both fighters have an imposing boxing record, Canelo has competed in and won more fights. It seems as though when it comes to going the distance by looking at the history of their previous fights, Charlo may have the upper edge as many of his prior fights have not gone the scheduled amount of rounds 

 Average odds 1.386 to go the distance, 2.710 fight to be stopped beforehand. 

Will there be a KO or UD victory?

Canelo carries a 63-2-2 record winning 39 by KO and Charlo carries a 35-1-1 record winning 19 by KO.

Both champions have a successful KO history, some say Alvarez might have had a slight fall from grace as he has not had a knockout since his November 2021 KO of Caleb Plant.Charlo, as an underdog, is as hungry as ever to win, and has been wanting this opportunity to fight Canelo for a while, naming him “as the man to beat” 

Odds on KO victory: Alvarez 3.75, Charlo 12.00

Odds on UD: Alvarez 1.83, Charlo  6.00