There is less than four weeks to go until the Olympics of jumps racing goes ahead at Cheltenham and the excitement is building. The equine flu outbreak has somewhat dominated the headlines in recent days, but with racing back on Wednesday hopefully it is all systems go now until the festival. We will try to preview all four Blue Riband Races in the next four weeks, and first up is the Gold Cup. We will use various stats to try and uncover the winner and we have had some good results using this method in the past. Check out the stats that matter for the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup below.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds 2019: Stats That Matter-Age More Than Just A Number
In recent times, the Cheltenham Gold Cup has been dominated by horses in a certain age bracket. Old boys aged 10yo or over usually struggle, while horses aged 6yo or younger have tended to come up short too. The last 10yo to win a Gold Cup was Cool Dawn in 1998, while the only 6yo to score since Mill House in 1963 was Long Run in 2011.
A few horses are ruled out due to this trend, including 25/1 shots Terrefort and Tout Est Permis who are both 6yos. At the other end of the scale, 12yo Coneygree looks up against it and we also have our first big casualty in 11yo Thistlecrack. 11yo Rathvinden is another notable one ruled out due to his age. The likes of 10yo Might Bite, Definitly Red and Killultagh Vic also fall by the wayside. Their supporters will be hoping the stats don’t matter in 2019!
Cut: Blaklion; Definitly Red; Don Poli; Killultagh Vic; Might Bite; Noble Endeavor; Valtor; Mala Beach; Outlander; Rathvinden; Thistlecrack; Coneygree; Tous Est Permis; Terrefort.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds 2019: Stats That Matter-Previous Course Form Crucial
The old saying horses for courses rings true so often in racing, and the Gold Cup is no exception to this rule. In fact, 9 of the last 10 winners have had placed or winning Graded form at Cheltenham. The tough fences, 3m 2f trip and stiff uphill finish are unique to Cheltenham. It takes a special sort of horse to prosper over such a test. Again, some high profile horses fall victim in this cut.
14/1 shot Al Boum Photo is fancied by quite a few good judges. The problem is, he fell on his only previous run here. Kemboy is only 9/1 but he is another that has come up short on his two previous starts at Cheltenham. Others to fall by the wayside at this stage include Black Corton, Invitation Only and Snow Falcon.
Cut: Al Boum Photo; Kemboy; Black Corton; Invitation Only; Monbeg Notorious; Acapella Bourgeois; Double Shuffle; Give Me A Copper; Snow Falcon; Yala Enki;
Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds 2019: Stats That Matter-Fancied Horses Usually Flourish
In the past it has usually paid to concentrate on horses at the head of the Cheltenham Gold Cup betting market. Since 2007 only one horse has scored at double figure odds, 20/1 shot Lord Windermere in 2014. You have to go all the way back to See More Business in 1999 for the next double figure priced winner at 16/1.
Given that we are still a few weeks away from the 2019 Cheltenham Gold Cup, we will use 20/1 as the cut off point. That means we can wave goodbye to the likes of 50/1 poke Minella Rocco (2nd in 2017) and 66/1 shot The Storyteller. 33/1 shots Anibale Fly (3rd in 2018), Balko Des Flos and Bristol De Mai don’t make the cut either. Other high profile horses to miss out are Shattered Love at 25s and Monalee at 33s, though he could go for the Ryanair instead.
Cut: Mister Whitaker; American; Minella Rocco; The Storyteller; Bristol De Mai; Balko Des Flos; Anibale Fly; Monalee; Shattered Love.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds 2019: Stats That Matter-The Verdict
So, with nine horses cut in the last round we have managed to narrow the field down to seven using our different stats. Presenting Percy is the favourite and if he runs a good race this weekend his odds of 11/4 could shorten even further. Last year’s winner Native River is next best at 4/1, though he was no match for 8/1 shot Clan Des Obeaux at Kempton over Xmas. However, Native River will be better suited by Cheltenham and he could well turn that form around.
Bellshill can be backed at odds of 10/1 but the 3m 2f trip could find his stamina out. He edged Road To Respect by a short head in a thriller at Leopardstown last time, and the runner up is another one who might be stretched by the trip. However, he was going well enough last year before a mistake at the 3rd last knocked the wind out of him.
Frodon proved his stamina for the trip last time when beating Elegant Escape here. However, he was given an easy time in front that day and that is unlikely to happen in the Gold Cup. We think Elegant Escape can turn that form around in a more truly run race. At odds of 20/1, Elegant Escape certainly looks to be the each way value in the race. However, he may not have the gears to deal with Presenting Percy. Having stamina is well and good, but you need speed to score in a Gold Cup too and Presenting Percy has a nice turn of foot. He is our selection, while Native River, Elegant Escape and Clan Des Obeaux can fill the places.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Odds 2019: Stats That Matter Prediction
- Presenting Percy @ 11/4
- Native River @4/1
- Elegant Escape @ 20/1
- Clan Des Obeaux @ 8/1