2019 Epsom Derby Tip And Preview by Dave Stevos

May 30, 2019

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2019 Epsom Derby Tip And Preview

The Epsom Derby festival starts on Friday and you can read our Oaks preview here. On Saturday the spotlight switches to the colts and it looks a mouth-watering renewal. There is no odds on favourite this time and it looks wide open. The ground will be good to firm, conditions a lot different to what some of the principals have encountered so far this year. There should be plenty of value to be found each way and Dave Stevos has done his best to unearth some decent Derby bets. Check out his 2019 Epsom Derby tip and preview below…

2019 Epsom Derby Tip

2019 Epsom Derby Tip: 4.30 Investec Derby (Group 1)

This looks like a wide open renewal of racing’s most important contest and a case can be made for quite a few of the 13 runners. Followers of our tips will remember me tipping up Sir Dragonet at Chester and given how he won, it is no surprise to see him favourite. The big worry for his supporters is the ground. He has relished cut on both his starts (and wins) so far and good to firm is a complete unknown.

The son of Camelot’s pedigree suggests that soft ground could be the key to him. His dam won on good, but all of her half siblings appreciated an ease. He should stay 12f and he is a serious horse, but whether Sir Dragonet will have the necessary turn of foot on quick ground is another question altogether. If he is as effective on the ground he holds huge claims, but at just 3/1 he is overlooked.

Ground Concerns For Broome

Aidan O’Brien will fire seven bullets at this year’s Derby and four of them are priced up at 10/1 or shorter. When O’Brien runs so many in the Derby it is often the case that the yard aren’t sure who represents their best chance. Broome has looked a serious horse this season but like Sir Dragonet, he has shown his best form with cut in the ground. The big thing in his favour is that he is by Australia and Brand Coolmore would be quids in from stallion fees if he got his head in front.

Anthony Van Dyck is a hard one to assess, but the big positive for him is that he has winning form on quick ground. He won on good to firm on debut and his only other start on that sort of ground saw him finish a good 3rd to Too Darn Hot over an inadequate 7f. Japan went into a lot of notebooks after his eye catching performance behind Telecaster at York. He will handle the ground, should relish the trip and at 10/1 he holds definite place claims.

Ballydoyle Best Of The Rest

Of those at bigger prices from Ballydoyle, Norway (40/1) and Circus Maximus (22/1) are the dark horses. The sole time that Norway has had quick ground and did his best he landed a 10f contest at Newmarket. He was too keen on his final start of last season at Saint Cloud and he didn’t enjoy the soft ground (or get a clear run) behind Sir Dragonet at Chester. He looks almost certain to appreciate 12f on quick ground, just like his full brother Ruler Of The World (won this race).

Circus Maximus has probably shown his best form on ground with an ease, so the lack of rain is a worry for his supporters. He has solid form in the book, including a fine 4th in the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster last season. He looked good when winning at Chester (10f gd/sft) and the extra 2f here won’t be an issue. The good to firm ground could be a problem though and for that reason he is overlooked.

Morrison Could Be Smiling On Saturday

The horse that has impressed me most this season is Telecaster. He looked a bit special when winning his maiden at Windsor, but his Dante win was even better. He went hard early and a furlong out it looked like Too Darn Hot had his measure. However, he stayed on strongly all the way to the line, shaping as if another 2f would be no problem at all.

He has a Derby winner’s pedigree, being by New Approach and out of an Oaks runner up. Oisin Murphy has been on board for his last two wins and he has kept the faith. Telecaster was supplemented for the race for big bucks after his Dante win. I think he will justify the decision and with ground to suit, he holds huge claims at odds of 11/2.

Stamina Worries For Madhmoon

The decision taken by Kevin Prendergast and Hamdam Al Maktoum to go down the Derby route is a brave one. When this colt won at Leopardstown last season over a mile he was extremely impressive. It was rattling quick ground that day and he absolutely relished it. He was beaten half a length over 7f on yielding on his seasonal return. However, that run was just to tee him up for the Guineas at Newmarket.

Although Madhmoon only finished 4th in the 2000 Guineas, it was still a fine run. Magna Grecia had the benefit of a huge draw bias and Madhmoon finished 2nd of the horses that raced down the middle. However, stepping up another 4f has to be a worry. His sire Dawn Approach was an out and out miler, while his dam’s half sister is the dam of Awtaad, another crack miler. If he stays the trip he has a good chance, but it is a big IF.

Balding’s Charge No Forlorn Hope

Of those at the head of the market, the overpriced horse is Bangkok. This son of Australia is with Andrew Balding and he beat Telecaster two runs back in a 10f maiden at Doncaster. It was Telecaster’s first day at school, while Bangkok had a few 2yo runs under his belt. However, there was no doubt about the result on the day and Bangkok backed up that run in good style with a 10f Group 3 win at Sandown (gd/fm).

Silvestre de Sousa is likely to make plenty of use of Bangkok early and it wouldn’t be a big surprise if the pair try to make all. He is related to winners at up to 14f so 12f should be well within his compass. He will make this a proper test and if De Sousa gets his fractions right, he could be hard to pass. However, it is a long way up that Epsom straight. The most likely scenario is he will be picked off in the last 100 yards. He should give each way backers a good run for their money though at 9/1.

2019 Epsom Derby Tip: The Verdict

The one to be on here is Telecaster. Hughie Morrison’s charge has looked every inch a Derby horse on his last two starts. Especially last time at York in the Dante. There was no fluke about that win and he proved his stamina for the trip that day and he also showed he relished quick ground. He ticks the pedigree box too and Telecaster is my idea of the most likely winner.

Each way punters have lots to mull over too. Especially with 7 Ballydoyle horses lining up. Broome could be the top contender, but the ground is a concern for him and also Sir Dragonet. At bigger odds, Japan and especially Norway could surprise with good runs. Bangkok is another with solid each way claims and he could end up posing the biggest threat to Telecaster. Hopefully it is a thrilling spectacle and all the runners come back safe and sound.

2019 EPSOM DERBY PREDICTION: 1. TELECASTER WIN @ 11/2

                                                                2. BANGKOK E/W @ 9/1

                                                                3. NORWAY E/W @ 40/1

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