2019 Epsom Oaks Tip And Preview
Pretty Pollyanna ran a huge race for us in the Irish 1000 Guineas on Sunday. She looked like mounting a massive challenge to Hermosa 2f out but perhaps her lack of a run told at the finish. The winner displayed a real battling attitude again and when you combine that with her class, it makes for a very difficult to beat combination. The fillies take centre stage again this Friday at Epsom. Dave Stevos thinks the top two in the betting look vulnerable on the likely quick ground and likes one at a massive price each way. Check out his 2019 Epsom Oaks tip and preview below…
2019 Epsom Oaks Tip: 4.30 Investec Oaks (Group 1)
Sixteen fillies remain in the reckoning for the 2019 Epsom Oaks. However, Hermosa looks unlikely to run after her Curragh heroics on Saturday and Iridessa is surely a doubt now too. That leaves 14 fillies to choose from and the current market leader, just, is Mehdaayih at 5/2. This daughter of Frankel dotted up in the Cheshire Oaks, but that was on easy ground.
She has won on quick ground, in a Yarmouth maiden, but she really seemed to relish getting her toe in at Chester. Whether she will be as effective on faster ground remains to be seen. Her two winning half siblings both enjoyed cut too, but her dam’s siblings all loved good to firm so there is hope she will be effective on hard ground. At odds of just 5/2 though, there is enough doubt to look elsewhere for a bet.
Beckett’s Charge Has Each Way Claims
Manuela De Vega was denied a clear run behind the favourite at Chester. She stayed on takingly for 2nd and Ralph Beckett immediately announced she would go straight to Epsom. She has 4.5L to find with the Gosden filly but on quick ground and with a clearer passage she could get a lot closer. It was her first run of the season too, another reason why she should close the gap.
This filly is by Lope De Vega, the sire of scintillating Irish 2000 Guineas winner Phoenix Of Spain. Her full sister Isabel De Urbina was no slouch (stayed 12f) and her full brother Hero Look is a Group 2 and Group 3 winner. There is a lot of speed on the dam side of her pedigree, but on the evidence of Chester she should stay this trip. Odds of 12/1 are more than fair and she has each way claims.
2019 Epsom Oaks Tip: Dogwood Has It To Prove On Quicker Ground
Pink Dogwood shot to the top of the market for this race after her Listed win at Navan (10f yld). Her maiden win came on heavy at Gowran and she ran a nice race on good at Longchamp on her penultimate start in the Group 1 Marcel Boussac. She has yet to even race on good to firm and that has to be a worry.
However, her full brother Latrobe won an Irish Derby on good to firm at the Curragh last season so on that evidence she is well worth trying on a quicker surface. Just like with Mehdaayih though, she has to prove she will handle it and at odds of 3/1 she looks skinny enough. Star Terms was over a length ahead of her in the Marcel Boussac and on a line through that filly, Fleeting looks massively overpriced.
Fleeting A Fascinating Contender
Fleeting beat Star Terms quite cosily in the May Hill at Doncaster (8f gd/fm) last season. She was held up, produced late and was doing all her best work at the finish. She also stayed on well when 3rd to Just Wonderful at the Curragh previously. Fleeting simply didn’t have the toe to go with that filly in the final furlong over a mile.
Her comeback run was dire, beaten over 11L in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. However, jockey bookings suggest that she might have needed the run that day so you can put a line through that run. She is by Zoffany, a sire that Brand Coolmore will be eager to get a classic win into. Her Motivator dam won at 14f and there is no shortage of stamina on her side of the family. At odds of 40/1 she could surprise with a huge run. It will be interesting to see who O’Brien books for the ride.
Best Of The Rest
Maqsad was well beaten by Mehaadiyah at Yarmouth last season but she looks a different filly now. The daughter of Siyouni won on her seasonal comeback, beating next time out winner Twist ‘N’ Shake. She stepped up to 10f next time in the Listed Pretty Polly at Newmarket and hacked up by 5L. However, the horses in behind that day haven’t franked the form and this is another huge step up in class. Tarnawa looks a real dark horse and she is highly rated by the Weld team. She needed every yard to get up over 10f last time and 12f could really suit.
Anapurna is only an 8/1 shot after a commanding win at Lingfield. However, that came on soft ground and it will be very different conditions on Friday. Her maiden win came on the all weather at Lingfield too, form that hasn’t worked out well. A rating of 103 could well flatter the daughter of Frankel and she looks underpriced given what she has achieved. Frankellina ran well after blowing the start at York but this is a lot tougher and stamina has to be a big worry.
Investec Oaks 2019 – The Verdict
At the current prices and with the ground likely to be good to firm, Fleeting makes a lot of appeal. She holds Pink Dogwood on a line through Star Terms and at a huge price she represents serious each way value. Manuela de Vega is another one that looks overpriced given that she is proven on quick ground and was unlucky in running behind Mehdaayih at Chester.
Quick ground leaves the two market leaders with questions to answer and at the prices, both those fillies are best watched. Tarnawa looks a filly on the improve and if she takes her chance she could run a massive race. However, with 40/1 currently available from William Hill, Fleeting is the each way selection. Manuela De Vega at 12/1 and Tarnawa at 25/1 are others to be interested in from an each way perspective.
2019 EPSOM OAKS PREDICTION: 1. FLEETING E/W @ 40/1
2. MANUELA DE VEGA E/W @ 12/1
3. TARNAWA E/W @ 25/1
Update at 16.06 Wednesday, May 29: Skybet paying out on 4 places each way.