Darts Premier League Tips And Preview: Week 16 – Darts Data & Odds
It is the final week of the Premier League darts regular season in Leeds and there is still plenty to play for. Gerwyn Price and Daryl Gurney nearly came to blows last week and they are both in with a chance of qualifying. So are Suljovic and Wade. There are some fascinating match ups, check out James Punt’s Darts Premier League Tips and preview (darts odds/data) ‘below…
Darts Premier League Tips : Gerwyn Price vs. Peter Wright
With Wright propping up the bottom of the table and Price needing nothing less than a win the motivation factor rests with just one player here. Wrights form outside of the Premier League is showing signs of life but he gave up on the PL some weeks ago. Wright last won a League match on the 7th March and has now lost five matches in a row. Perversely he put in a good performance last week, averaged 103 but lost 1-8 to Van Gerwen.
Their H2H form is interesting. Wright has a 12-3 lead overall but Price has won their last two including a 7-5 League win.
It’s easy to over think this and read in outside factors which may or may not play a part in this match. The motivation is all with Price, he is trying to reach finals night. With motivation comes pressure. He MUST win; there are no more league matches after this.
Pressure Off Snakebite
Wright has no pressure at all. This is a glorified exhibition match, a practice session to work on his game. He comes here on the back of reaching the final of the European Darts Grand Prix at the weekend which included a win over MVG. He has won six of his last ten matches and is arguably in the best form he has been in during the course of the League.
Price has won five of his last ten so he is losing too many matches to have long runs in tournaments. This is just a one off match of course but a hugely important one. He is facing Wright at just the wrong time. Wright’s tail will be up and he will want to end what has been a horrible tournament for him with a win. He is rebuilding his form right now and a win here will help with that momentum.
Darts Premier League Tips : 1 point Peter Wright to win @ 2.66 with Marathon Bet
Darts Premier League: Daryl Gurney vs. Michael Smith
Another match where one player needs a good result, a heavy win ideally. Daryl Gurney is right on the cusp of qualification. Tied on 17 points with Suljovic and tied on leg difference. If both win, leg difference will be the deciding factor. Suljovic faces MVG in the following match so Gurney can really ramp up the pressure on the Austrian with a win here.
Gurney has won six of his last ten matches with a draw in last Thursday’s controversial match with Gerwyn Price. That matter was quickly resolved with his manager making sure the flames were stamped out ASAP. Gurney apologised, privately and publically, and his apology was accepted. The matter is now closed although the DRA are bound to have a fine lined up but the heat has been taken out of the situation. That allows Gurney to concentrate 100% on the job in hand.
Bully Boy Has Struggled
That job is to beat Michael Smith who like Peter Wright is already eliminated from the league. Smith has been struggling with his doubles. It might go all the way back to the final of the World Series when he missed multiple match doubles. It is now at the front of his mind and he is under pressure every time he goes for a double. He might be helped by the fact that he has very little at stake here. If Wright has won the preceding match then Smith needs a point to stay in 7th place and pick up £5000 more than for being 8th.
Smith has won just four of his last ten matches with a draw against an out of sorts Wade last week. That was a match he should have lost and Wade was unsettled by being picked by security up an hour late for his trip to the venue last week. That knocked him out of his usual routine. Smith beat Ratajski in a Euro Tour match on Saturday, another match he should have lost. In six of his last ten matches Smith’s checkout rate has been less than 30%. His scoring remains good but he is failing to take his chances all too often.
Double Trouble For Smith
Their H2H record is 7-4 to Smith. Gurney won their first phase match 7-6 and their only other meeting in the last 12 months was a 10-9 win for Smith in the UK Open. So normally you would expect a close match here and it might still be one.
At the same stage of the PL last year Wright and Whitlock were both out when playing their final match, both drew their matches but Wright was playing Gurney who was also out by that stage. Van Barneveld was also out and he to drew his last match.
Smith hasn’t won a PL match for seven weeks but over the course of the second phase he is averaging 99.16. Scoring well but finishing poorly. His overall checkout rate is 35.8%, the lowest in the league.
This is all about Smith and his doubles. Daryl Gurney is in decent form with six wins from ten and his scoring is usually up in the high nineties. Expect close legs and the match will be decided by Smith’s ability to hit doubles. On recent displays it is more likely than not that he will miss a few big doubles and Gurney should have his chances. He takes them, he wins but I expect a close, nervy match.
Darts Premier League Tips : 1 point Daryl Gurney to win 8-6 @ 11.00 with Bet365, Boylesports
Michael van Gerwen vs. Mensur Suljovic
MVG has already qualified for the play offs but he will be totally motivated to win. He has to win and hope that Cross loses to Wade in the last match of the night if he is to top the league table yet again and trouser the £25000 bonus.
Suljovic can lose this match and still qualify for finals night. If Gurney and Price both lose their matches he is in. However, if Gurney gets a point, Suljovic needs at least a point.
Van Gerwen has won eight of his last ten matches and has a 12-4 H2H record over Suljovic including three in the last 12 months. Suljovic has won five of his last ten matches but lost his last three in a row.
No Value In Backing MVG
It is hard to see Van Gerwen fluffing his lines here. He generally averages over the ton and that is hard to beat unless you can match his scoring. He does occasionally throw in a stinker but even his 3-6 defeat to Peter Wright at the weekend he averaged 99. Suljovic will have to play one of his best ever matches if he is to get something here. However, his recent form isn’t great.
MVG to win but odds of 1.30 are of no interest.
Premier League Tips: James Wade vs. Rob Cross
James Wade can still miss out on the play offs if Gurney and Suljovic both win and he loses. The level of pressure on him will not be known until those matches are over. However, I suspect he will be playing this match safe in the knowledge that he will be going to the O2 for finals night.
Cross will very likely need a win to top the table and win the bonus. He has won six of his last ten matches while Wade has won five. Their H2H record is close at 6-5 to Cross but Wade had won four of the last five.
The Machine Looks Overpriced
Wade is the 3.00 outsider which looks a touch big given their recent H2H form. There are all sorts of possible outcomes and consequences here. But it’s best to keep it simple. Both players will benefit from a win. Cross will win the league if he wins and Wade will avoid MVG in the semi-final if he beats Cross.
Their recent matches have not been close and in terms of legs won it is 23-13 over the last 12 months. Cross has come up short in his really big matches since winning the World Championship. There has been a pro tour title and a World Series title but he has a long list of losing semi-finals and finals. This is in effect a big final. At the odds I’ll take him to lose another.
Darts Premier League Tips : 1 point James Wade to win @ 3.00 with SpreadEx, Betfair, Marathon Bet, Skybet