Royal Ascot Day 4 Preview by Dave Stevos
We finally got a winner on the board at Ascot on Thursday with Star Catcher. He was given a peach by the man of the moment, Frankie Dettori and scored at 4/1 (advised at 8s). Real Appeal pulled his chance away in the opener, his lack of big field experience showing. Capri loomed up as though he was going to challenge, but he isn’t the same horse he once was on that evidence. Our two handicap selections were well beaten and those races have been particularly hard to work out this week. You can check out Dave Stevos Royal Ascot Day 4 free tips and preview below…
Royal Ascot Tips: 2.30 Albany Stakes (Group 3)
Not much rain fell at Ascot on Thursday and the ground will be drying out all the time. It should be close to good for the Albany, the opening 6f Group 3 for the fillies. I have been told that Kevin Ryan’s filly, Galadriel, is a talented sort and she was a big eyecatcher on her debut. If she has learned from that she could go well, but I prefer the form lines of JM Jackson for Mark Johnston and SDS.
This daughter of No Nay Never has only run over 5f in her two starts so far and shaped as if further would suit in both. Only Ventura Rebel proved too good for her on debut and he was beaten a neck in the Norfolk earlier. The 3rd home when she was 2nd at Sandown, Strive For Glory, was 4th in the Norfolk so the form looks rock solid.
Given how results have gone in the sprints this week, stall 20 has to be viewed as a positive draw. On her two runs so far 6f will be right up her street and her full brother North Wind is a winner over the trip. The more the ground dries out, the better it will be for JM Jackson and at odds of 14/1 she is the each way NAP.
ROYAL ASCOT DAY 4 TIPS: JM JACKSON E/W @ 14/1 4 PLACES NAP
Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips: 3.05 – King Edward VI Stakes (Group 2)
This 12f Group 2 is for 3yo Colts and Geldings and only eight will go to post. After his close call at Epsom, Japan is a near odds on favourite. If that race was 50 yards further he would have won but the question is, how strong is the form? Circus Maximus certainly boosted it, but he won over a mile here and Norway let it down badly. You could throw a blanket over the first 5 home at Epsom and that is usually a sign that the form is relatively moderate.
For that reason, Japan is worth taking on at the prices and Bangkok is worth giving another chance to. He was sweating up before the Derby and there is no way he ran to form. He looked a proper horse on his previous two starts and both Technician and Persian Moon did the form of his Group 3 win at Sandown no harm on their next outings.
The more the ground dries out the better for Bangkok, but he could well handle an ease on pedigree. A few of his half siblings have won on soft and in any case, the ground could well have turned good by the time of this race. Odds of 16/1 underestimate his chances and at that price he is worth backing each way.
ROYAL ASCOT DAY 4 TIPS: BANGKOK E/W @ 16/1
Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips: 3.00 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1)
The Commonwealth Cup is a 6f Group 1 for 3yo colts and fillies and nine sprinters will go to post. Ten Sovereigns is a short price for the Ballydoyle team and he will love dropping back in trip. He didn’t get home in the 2000 Guineas and he remains unbeaten over 6f. There shouldn’t be much between him and Jash on their clash in the Middle Park when only half a length separated them.
However, the third horse home that day is a double figure price and Rumble Inthejungle can’t be discounted. He hails from the shrewd Richard Spencer yard and he knows what a Royal Ascot winner looks like. Spencer won the Coventry a couple of years ago with Rajasinghe and this colt is already rated higher than him.
He is by promising sire Bungle Inthejungle and out of a Dark Angel dam. Rumble Inthejungle has shown his best form on good and good to firm, but his pedigree suggests a slight ease will pose no problems. He only has 2L to find with Ten Sovereigns on their Middle Park form and he is sure to be primed for his first outing of the season. A big run could be on the cards at odds of 25/1 and he is the each way pick.
ASCOT RACING TIP: RUMBLE INTHEJUNGLE E/W @ 25/1
Ascot Racing Tip: 4.20 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1)
The Coronation Stakes is the feature race on Day 4 at Royal Ascot and what a contest it is. Nine will go to post and the one they all have to beat is Hermosa. This fantastic filly has swept all before her this season. She beat Lady Kaya on her seasonal return in the Newmarket Guineas and followed that up with a 4L win from Pretty Pollyanna in the Irish version. Kept to a mile, she is going to be very hard to beat, especially if the ground continues to dry out.
However, one filly that looks potentially overpriced for Ballydoyle is Happen. Donnacha O’Brien rides this daughter of War Front and she looks sure to relish the step up to a mile. She needed every inch of 7f to get up to beat Dan’s Dream at the Curragh last time. Unusually for a War Front filly she seems to appreciate a bit of juice in the ground. She showed she handled soft when staying on well to be 2nd to Lady Kaya at Leopardstown.
Her form doesn’t match up with the best fillies in this field. However, apart from Hermosa a lot of these have something to prove at this level. The favourite does look by far the most likely winner, but there is place money up for grabs. Happen could easily sneak into the first three and at odds of 22/1 she is worth backing each way.
ROYAL ASCOT DAY 4 TIPS: HAPPEN E/W @ 22/1
Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips: 5.00 Sandringham Stakes (Class 2)
Twenty seven 3yo fillies will line up in the stalls for this ultra-competitive mile handicap. This looks wide open and one filly that looks massively overpriced is Model Guest. Trained by George Margarson, this daughter of Showcasing remains a maiden after eight starts. However, she clearly possesses a fair chunk of ability. She ran a lovely race off 93 on her handicap debut against older horses. Back in her own age group she could be very dangerous off 2lb lower.
On her 2yo form she looks extremely well treated. She was only 3.5L behind Main Edition on her fourth career start in the Group 3 Sweet Solera and only a length behind La Pelosa. Model Guest finished last season with a super effort in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket, 5L behind Just Wonderful (rated 109) and only 1.5L behind Main Edition (rated 107) off level weights.
She has loads of placed course form in the book and she has already shown she can handle ground ranging from good to soft to good to firm. Her draw in stall 26 looks a positive too, given results here earlier this week. Barry McHugh has plenty of experience in big field handicaps and looks a decent booking. Not many in this field have shown the same level of form as Model Guest. Consequently, she looks massively overpriced at 50/1.
ROYAL ASCOT DAY 4 TIPS: MODEL GUEST E/W @ 50/1 6 PLACES NB
Royal Ascot Tips: 5.35 – Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap (Class 2)
The 12f Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap closes the show on Day 4 at the Royal Meeting and 19 will go to post. A high draw is usually an advantage in this race and 10 of the last 11 winners started from stall 10 or higher. Byron Flyer is an interesting contender from stall 22 with top French pilot Mickael Barzalona booked. He is top weight off a mark of 105 but only 7lbs separates him from the bottom weight so it shouldn’t be too big an issue.
Byron Flyer ran a cracker at Epsom three weeks ago off 104 and he is 1lb higher now. He is only 3lb above his last winning mark so he is handicapped to be competitive. Drying ground will suit but he handles good to soft so there should be no worries regarding underhoof conditions. His has finished 2nd and 3rd on two previous runs at Ascot, over 16f, so he handles the track well.
However, his best recent flat form has come over 12f and it looks his optimum trip on the level. Ian Williams is as shrewd as they come and he has already won a handicap this week with The Grand Visir. Byron Flyer could give him more to shout about on Day 4 with trip, track and ground all looking ideal. At 28/1, he is the each way selection.